Its my favourite time of year to go along to New Zealand Bloodstock sales at Karaka.
I mark out the few ‘hot’ pedigrees (by TBL modis operandi) not so much to see the price they fetch, but to view the individual’s phenotype.
On parade one might see nice-types with added appeal – which on one’s own terms irks something ‘I want to know.’
Come, back home, we’ll work the pedigree and find how I reflected this.
I am pleased to say & without any arrogance I follow my instincts and hunches well.
I have followed those horses through…it takes a few years, for hunches to come to fruition as the nature of a horse’s development through to its racing.
This also applies to the stallions ‘suitability’ to mares.
In earlier TBL years – it was New Zealand’s Horse of the Year 2005/06: Seachange (Cape Cross/Just Cruising) where I forecasted well ahead she would be the NZ champ she became. This by methodology re: female family tables. There is no in-breeding to the 5th generation and I thought the workability of the pedigree was clear as day.
It’s however, not always about picking champions, its the ‘judgement’ where horses cannot develop on, although they might pick up a few wins in their early racing career. Young ‘big’ horses precocious athletes (hate that term, actually) blow out, amongst many things of course, but I do feel the genealogy pedigree doesn’t help them.
Expectation & disappointment are hard learning curves, yet great ‘teachers’.
I realize its a hard game to win credibility – can only say, I cut teeth on elements which I had not envisaged.
Though TBL has few followers, but with sufficient ‘hits’ to suggest our advisory has merits. I have come to understand people rather not leave a ‘calling-card’.
I started on pedigrees about 2006 and amongst my formative questions…. as it made me wonder how breeding New Zealand’s wonder mare Sunline, came to prominence, other than be labelled the genetic-freak, which doesn’t sound too kind.
Anyway it is how ‘our’ pedigree analysis started and acquiring enough of a skill set to make at the very least, a fair judgment.
We have not adopted conventionality. Those same accounts have been here for eons and not much has changed other than smarter statistical reporting upon algorithms. i.e. everything has Nearco, Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector, Nasrullah. We just had to look what other possibilities there where to what was cutting the pedigree.
With simple complexity…. in-depth breeding principles do not & cannot change.
With other social media outlets… I have suggested each-to-their-own interpretation – bits of ‘info’ help others along every genetic jig-saw puzzle.
The TBL aim is to attempt to put different degrees or angles to the pedigree and in fact, it was Black Caviar’s pedigree Black Caviar: ‘diamonds’ within a pedigreewhich lead me to identify something better. Yes in-breeding, line-breeding works but there is another ‘edge’ for which I have attempted to account for.
Its application is find the core, genus-type.
Genus breeding was well applied (meaningfully) by the earliest thoroughbred breeders in England because they where well acquainted with the history of the lines, the strains, which brought about the bloodlines. Namely, archetypal Eclipse whose many other strains within his pedigree where not accounted for and these are factors which I believe, have been brushed over by historians for convenience. Yes, I do have that antique literature from the horses mouth.
So elements, strains, traits, which I consider ‘lost’ over time, can allow or help us to help how pedigrees infuse, unfold and transpire.
Through this lens, the contemporary genus is emerging something extraordinary hence we blogged The super-nova of fillies & mares (It is an area where I will further explore down the track..)
I love the TBL blog, I love the research because I love to see horses succeed. I hate horses forced to race when no way in hell the pedigree will let them run.
2019 brings new opportunities, new horizons, new stallions, new horses, new challenges.
TBL believes it has helped many to find a confidence with their own breeding …..however the commercial sector have helped themselves for benefit.
Okay, I know its a cheapie website: public domain free-to-air, I find it perplexing one cannot at least offer a thumbs-up. Or, I agree to disagree and or other. Diktat
TBL has decided to step up and provide a new service which will be accessed by subscription with payment. More on this soon….
The ‘free’ blogs will be shorter content with less detail.
Cheers for now,